Western Washington

225 
FXUS66 KSEW 101559
AFDSEW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Seattle WA
859 AM PDT Thu Jul 10 2025

.UPDATE...No changes to the overall forecast. Please see the
aviation and marine sections below for updates to those 
forecasts. 

&&

.SYNOPSIS...High pressure will build into the region into the 
weekend and through the first half of next week, resulting in 
warm and dry conditions across western Washington. The heat is 
expected to peak next Wednesday, where temperatures could reach 
the low to mid 90s across much of the region.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...Post frontal onshore 
flow this morning will maintain cloudy skies as light shower 
activity tapers off over the North Cascades and along the 
northern coast. The marine layer will persist along the coast 
throughout the day today but will burn off by the early 
afternoon across the interior lowlands, giving way to mostly 
sunny skies as high pressure builds offshore. The cloudy skies 
will limit high temperatures along the coast today to the mid 
60s, with temperatures peaking in the lower 70s further inland.

A weak ridge will pass over the region on Friday, allowing
temperatures to rebound back into the lower 80s across much of the
lowlands. Weakening onshore flow will maintain cloudy skies along
the Pacific coast with mostly clear and dry conditions elsewhere.
Zonal flow will resume over the region on Saturday as a weak 
disturbance passes over the periphery of the upper level ridge 
building offshore, which will maintain nearly identical conditions
to Friday across western Washington through the weekend. 

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...Conditions on Sunday and
Monday will bring more of the same under zonal flow as high 
pressure continues to build offshore, with light surface onshore 
flow and highs in the low to mid 80s.

A high pressure ridge situated offshore will sharply amplify
during the first half of next week, bringing much warmer 
conditions and widespread Moderate (orange) HeatRisk to western 
Washington on Tuesday and Wednesday. By Tuesday, the offshore 
ridge will sharply amplify and a thermally induced surface trough
is on track to develop along the Pacific Northwest coastline. 
Highs will reach the 90s on Tuesday for areas south of the Puget 
Sound and along some Cascade Foothill and Valley locations. 
Temperatures will continue to increase into Wednesday as the high 
pressure offshore continues to build and the thermal trough 
shifts northward, with areas across the Puget Sound lowlands on 
track to reach the mid 90s. A few daily temperature records may be
broken towards the middle of next week, and a shift to easterly
winds through the Cascade gaps will likely bring elevated fire 
weather concerns to the region.

15

&&

.AVIATION...A weak trough is swinging a front across W WA this 
morning. The flow aloft will turn more northwesterly today with this 
trough. Radar is tracking light showers/drizzle moving eastward. A 
smaller band of showers is tracking inland along the coast. These 
will be hit and miss around the terminals (given the scattered 
nature).

Conditions currently are a mix of VFR/MVFR/IFR. MVFR decks 
(expectation is 2,000-3,000 ft bases). A few spots from KPAE to KHQM 
may see CIGs drop below 1,000 ft. Mist may drop visibilities at 
coastal terminals down to 2 SM. Once the trough clears this 
afternoon, a transient ridge will clear up most ceilings (interiors 
will see improvement to VFR as early as 21Z, with scattering taking 
place this evening. Another push will be possible Friday morning 
with lower ceilings as the onshore flow translates down to the 
surface.

Southwest winds this morning. These winds will decrease through the 
day, and turn northwesterly late this afternoon and evening 
regionwide at 4 to 8 kt.

KSEA...Few hit or miss showers possible at the terminal this morning 
with MVFR cigs. VFR is favored to return around 20-21z. The chance 
for MVFR Friday morning is slightly lower, but a marine push is 
expected to push stratus inland from the southwest. Southwest winds 
4-8 kt will decrease this morning, and turn northwesterly by 22-00Z.

HPR/McMillian

&&

.MARINE...An occluded front is moving inland this morning with a 
passing upper level trough. Some scattered showers are ongoing with 
this trough in some of the inland waters, and the coastal waters 
will see some showers as well this morning. Additionally, areas of 
locally dense fog will be possible again this morning as the front 
passes. The coverage is not expected to be widespread enough for a 
marine dense fog advisory, but may opt to do a special weather 
statement later in the morning if fog does develop. Visibilities 
down to a mile are possible, with isolated areas seeing less than a 
mile.

The flow over the waters will turn northwesterly later today post 
front. Diurnal pushes will continue through the strait (but at this 
time do not appear they will reach small craft advisory criteria). A 
trough passing to the north early next week may produce gusty winds 
in the outer coastal waters, along with steeper seas.

Seas will range 3-4 feet today, increase to 4-6 feet Friday, and 
further increase to 6 to 9 feet Sunday through Wednesday, couple 
spots further offshore may see 10 feet seas.

HPR/McMillian

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Cooler and more moist conditions will begin to cease 
later today as skies clear and conditions being to warm up with a
weak upper level ridge building over the area. Friday will be the
warmest and driest day of the work week with RH values dropping 
back into the 25% to 35% range over the mountains and across the 
interior lowlands south of the Puget Sound. More robust onshore 
flow will help usher in moist air this weekend despite high 
temperatures remaining in the 80s.

While there is some model discrepancy, there is consensus that a 
more robust upper level ridge will being to build and move into the 
area by the middle of next week. Models are beginning show the 
development of a thermal trough along the coast, which would allow 
for winds to shift to offshore, promoting much drier and warmer 
conditions as well as some potential breezy winds through the 
Cascade gaps. This pattern will continue to be closely monitored as 
we approach next week.

62

&&


.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

WA...None.
PZ...None.

&&

$$

Southwestern Washington and Western Oregon

288 
FXUS66 KPQR 101700 AAA
AFDPQR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Portland OR
1000 AM PDT Thu Jul 10 2025

Updated Aviation and Marine Discussions

.SYNOPSIS... Dry with seasonable temperatures for interior 
valleys this afternoon. High pressure builds Friday into the 
weekend, leading to much warmer temperatures. Increasing
potential for triple digits inland next Tue/Wed.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Now through Friday night...Expect another day with 
near normal temps as weak troughing remains in place across the
PacNW. The day will start out party to mostly cloudy, clearing 
through the day. Highs in the upper 70s to low 80s expected 
inland with low to mid 60s expected along the coast. Friday will
see temps jump 8-12 degrees for most inland locations as high 
pressure builds across the northeast Pacific along with 
thermally induced low pressure over the Willamette Valley. Highs
in the upper 80s to around 90 degrees expected inland while the
coast warms a few degrees into the mid 60s to low 70s. -Batz


.LONG TERM...Saturday through Tuesday...For the weekend, the heat is
on. WPC 500 mb cluster guidance continues to show very good 
agreement as a ridge of high pressure building and strengthening
over the Eastern Pacific and Pac NW through at least early next
week. There are some slight variations in exact strength and 
placement of the ridge over the region, but a prolonged period 
of upper 80s to low 90s throughout the Willamette Valley look 
good. There is also a decent chance (30-70%) for widespread 
triple digits throughout the Willamette Vally and interior 
lowlands next Tuesday and Wednesday.

Probabilities for highs to reach 95 or greater from Salem to Eugene 
on Saturday are 30-50%, on Sunday it is 70-90% and on Monday it is 
30-50%. Probabilities around the Portland/Vancouver Metro on 
Saturday are 10%, on Sunday 30-50% and Monday to 10-20%. At this 
time, HeatRisk is expected to remain moderate through Monday. There 
is a slim chance (around 10%) for a few locations in the central and 
southern Willamette Valley to reach 100 Sunday and Monday. Chances 
for triple digits increase dramatically Tuesday and Wednesday as the 
ridge strengthens. Probabilities for highs to reach 100 or greater 
for various locations in our Forecast Area on Tuesday and Wednesday 
(7/15/2025, 7/16/25):

Portland/Vancouver Metro: 30-60%, 50-80% 
Salem: 60-70%, 50-70% 
Eugene: 50-70%, ~50% 
Battle Ground: 30-40%, 40-50% 
Kelso/Longview: 15-30%, 30-40% 
Astoria: less than 1% both days 
Hood River: 15-30% both days 
Newport: less than 1% both days 
Oakridge: 5-10% both days

Temps have trended toward the upper 90s to low 100s for Tuesday and 
Wednesday, pushing HeatRisk values to Major for portions of the 
Willamette Valley and Columbia River Gorge.

In addition to the upper level high pressure, models are also 
showing the development of a thermally induced trough slowly 
spreading northward into the Willamette Valley towards the start of 
next week. If this solution within the models does manifest, then 
will likely result in offshore flow. Lastly, expect most of the area 
to remain dry through the end of the long term IE no precipitation 
in the forecast at this time. However, models are hinting at a 
possible pattern change come Wednesday/Thursday and that could bring 
some very light precipitation into the forecast, but model 
probabilities are too low to warrant inclusion of any precipitation 
in the forecast for now, but will continue to monitor as models 
start to better resolve this feature in the coming days.
-Batz/42

&&

.AVIATION...Marine stratus across the air space will slowly scour
out resulting in a mixture of VFR/MVFR conditions for inland 
locations and a mixture of all flight conditions along the coast,
with most locations along the coast being in VFR or MVFR
conditions. Currently, winds variable under 5 kts, but northerly 
winds pick up around 20Z Thursday and continue through 02Z Friday 
with gusts up to 20 kts possible at all terminals.

Westerly flow continues across NW Oregon and SW Washington through
the TAF period. As a result, expect similar conditions as to what
has been observed over the past 24-48 hours. Expect coastal
conditions to develop IFR/LIFR conditions around 00Z-03Z Friday 
For inland locations, while onshore flow will be present, it will
be northerly and this pattern will mitigate any marine stratus
infiltrating through the gaps and flows as well as the Columbia
River. However, models are showing some backbuilding clouds off
the Cascades and that could bring some MVFR flight conditions to
northerly (KPDX,KTTD,KVUO) and south/central (KSLE and KEUG) 
terminals. These conditions will likely start around 10Z-12Z 
Friday. Aftewards, across the airspace expect any lowered flight 
conditions that developed to slowly improve starting around
12Z-15Z Friday. 

PDX AND APPROACHES...Predominately VFR conditions through the 
majority of the TAF period. Backbuilding clouds off the Cascades
will likely bring MVFR conditions to the the terminal and eastward
starting around 12Z Friday. Conditions expected to improve back
towards VFR around 16Z-18Z Friday. Winds variable under 5 kts, 
but northerly winds pick up around 20Z Thursday and continue 
through 02Z Friday with gusts up to 20 kts possible. /42

&&

.MARINE...North/northwest winds across all waters and persist 
through the weekend as a broad area of high pressure and a 
thermally induced trough spreads northward. As the high pressure 
and associated thermally induced trough mature, expect gusty 
northerly winds and choppier wind driven seas, particularly south 
of Cape Falcon. Winds and seas will be strongest off the central 
coast of Oregon and will typically peak in the afternoon and 
evening hours over the inner waters each day through the weekend. 
/42

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

OR...None.
WA...None.
PZ...None.

&&

$$

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Southeastern Washington and Northeastern Oregon

969 
FXUS66 KPDT 100600
AFDPDT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pendleton OR
1100 PM PDT Wed Jul 9 2025

.EVENING UPDATE...Red Flag Warnings have been cancelled. For the 
warning that was in effect for ORZ691/WAZ691 (Lower Columbia 
Basin of Oregon and Washington), relative humidity values have 
risen well above critical thresholds. Breezy to windy conditions 
will persist through the evening. For the warning that was in 
effect for ORZ698 (Southern Blue Mountains), the threat of 
abundant cloud-to-ground lightning has ended. Plunkett/86

&&

.AVIATION...06Z TAFs...VFR conditions are forecast for all sites 
through the valid period. Clouds will consist mainly of FEW-SCT 
stratocumulus or cumulus with otherwise SKC. Periods of breezy to 
locally windy conditions will persist for all sites through 
Thursday. Strongest winds will be at DLS/PDT. Plunkett/86

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 155 PM PDT Wed Jul 9 2025/ 

.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Friday...Satellite imagery this 
afternoon shows a cold front passing over western WA and
northwestern OR, while small cumulus fields are starting to
develop along the higher terrain of the eastern mountains.

Today, an upper trough with an attendant cold front will continue 
to sweep across the PacNW and exit the region by tonight. 
Convective activity will pick up ahead of the trough axis through 
this afternoon, with any developing storms tapping into modest 
surface instability and low level lapse rates, allowing for 
isolated thunderstorms to develop mainly across the higher terrain
of Grant, southern Union, and Wallowa counties. The best chances are 
going to be just south of Grant County, where a Red Flag Warning is 
in effect through this evening. In the lower elevations and through 
the Cascade Gaps, the approach and subsequent passage of the cold 
front will result in breezy to locally gusty conditions developing 
this afternoon and evening. The strongest winds (20-30 mph with 
gusts up to 45 mph) will develop through the Cascade gaps and 
persist into this evening. The Columbia Basin will also see winds 
around 20-25 mph with gusts up to 40 mph, with a Red Flag Warning in 
effect through this evening as winds are strong enough to overcome 
the impacts from relatively higher RHs this afternoon.

Tomorrow, the upper trough will be well east of the region, with 
a weak northwest flow aloft. Conditions will remain cool but dry
across the forecast area with breezy conditions through the
Cascade gaps. Thursday evening through Friday, transient ridging
will slide into the PacNW, with a warming and drying trend that
will last into into early next week. Lawhorn/82

&&

.LONG TERM...Saturday through Wednesday...Behind the exit of a
transient ridge early Saturday, broad upper ridging will develop
over the northeast Pacific and extend into the PacNW. Ensemble
cluster solutions are in great agreement of this upper ridge
sticking around the area through the middle of next week, though
agreement decreases Tuesday into Wednesday as to where the ridge
axis will be positioned. Otherwise, the only other feature to 
note will be a shortwave trough attempting to ride over the upper 
ridge Sunday, which could bring increased breezy conditions 
through the Cascade gaps.

Overall confidence is mod-high (65-80%) that dry conditions will
prevail through the extended forecast with a warming trend into 
the weekend. Locally breezy winds will develop in the afternoons 
(confidence 60-80%), with strongest winds on Sunday with the upper
trough passage (confidence 50-70%). Confidence wanes into the 
middle of next week with the forecasted temperatures (confidence 
30-60%) owing to disagreement on the position of the ridge axis. 
Lawhorn/82

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  60  88  58  92 /   0   0   0   0 
ALW  64  88  62  92 /   0   0   0   0 
PSC  61  91  59  94 /  10   0   0   0 
YKM  59  88  59  93 /  10   0   0   0 
HRI  62  91  59  95 /   0   0   0   0 
ELN  59  82  57  92 /  10   0   0   0 
RDM  50  86  48  88 /   0   0   0   0 
LGD  57  83  56  87 /  10   0   0   0 
GCD  54  86  52  88 /  20   0   0   0 
DLS  62  84  61  94 /  10   0   0   0 

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$

EVENING UPDATE...86
SHORT TERM...82
LONG TERM....82
AVIATION...86

Northeastern Washington and Northern Idaho

178 
FXUS66 KOTX 101115
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
415 AM PDT Thu Jul 10 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cooler and locally breezy Thursday

- Warmer again with above normal temperatures this weekend and
  into next week

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
After a brief cool down on Thursday, warm temperatures will 
return over the weekend into next week along with a continued
dry weather pattern. Winds will also be locally breezy at 
times, especially across Central Washington.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Sunday: For today there is a passing upper trough
that will slide to our north across southeast British Columbia.
The main impact from this will be to bring a shift from west 
winds to north winds heading into the late afternoon and 
evening. Channeling of winds down the Okanogan Valley will 
result in breezy north winds for elevated fire weather 
conditions. There will also be just enough instability over the 
North ID Panhandle for a 20% chance of afternoon showers. Drier 
air with this north wind push will allow for clearing skies 
overnight heading into Friday. The increased sunshine on Friday 
will result in warmer temperatures as high temperatures climb 
back above normal in the upper 80s to mid 90s. The warming 
continues over the weekend as highs climb into the 90s, with the
warmest locations Sunday close to the 100F mark. The flat ridge
and westerly flow will result in an enhanced cross-Cascade 
pressure gradient leading to breezy late afternoon/evening west 
winds across Central WA especially near the Cascade gaps. 

Monday through Wednesday: The forecast gets a little more 
uncertain as a ridge amplifies off the coast allowing a 
potential wave to drop in from the northwest Monday into Tuesday.
65% of the 12z ensemble members show a weak wave dropping in 
resulting in locally breezy north winds and elevated fire 
weather conditions. 35% show a stronger north push, which would 
result in elevated to critical fire weather concerns due to dry,
windy conditions especially for the Okanogan Valley and 
Columbia Basin. The 00z ensemble means from the ECMWF and 
Canadian support the stronger solution so this will continue to 
be monitored. Following this, the offshore ridge begins to 
flatten but mean ridging remains for warm and dry weather. JW

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: VFR conditions are expected to continue for all TAF 
sites through 12z Friday. A weak weather system passing north 
and east of the area on Thursday will bring a 20% chance of a 
rain shower to the North Idaho Panhandle otherwise dry 
conditions are expected. This will also bring about a wind 
shift, from west-southwest tonight to north-northwest heading 
into Thursday afternoon and evening. Winds will also be locally 
breezy on Thursday, with gusts of 15-20 kts, except 25 kts at 
KEAT.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: High confidence
that VFR conditions will continue at all TAF sites. The Hope
and Western Pines Fires over NE Washington could advect some
smoke into the Spokane/Coeur d'Alene area late Thursday
afternoon into the evening with the northwest wind shift.
But given decreased heat on satellite tonight, and that the
smoke would more likely be aloft, surface visibility is not
expected to remain above 6 miles. JW 

-----------------------

Confidence descriptors:
Low - Less than a 30 percent chance
Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance
High - Greater than a 70 percent chance

For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane
airports, please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our 
webpage: https:/www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Spokane        83  55  88  59  92  62 /   0   0   0   0   0   0 
Coeur d'Alene  81  54  87  58  90  62 /   0   0   0   0   0   0 
Pullman        79  51  84  54  88  57 /   0   0   0   0   0   0 
Lewiston       89  63  94  64  98  68 /   0   0   0   0   0   0 
Colville       80  45  87  49  92  53 /   0   0   0   0   0   0 
Sandpoint      78  50  84  53  87  57 /  10   0   0   0   0   0 
Kellogg        77  57  84  61  87  64 /  10   0   0   0   0   0 
Moses Lake     88  58  93  60  97  64 /   0   0   0   0   0   0 
Wenatchee      85  63  93  68  95  71 /   0   0   0   0   0   0 
Omak           84  55  92  62  96  65 /   0   0   0   0   0   0 

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...None.
ID...None.

&&

$$